Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

The US Republic is a remarkable State of Being, true to the founding Father’s American’s have established a Democracy, despite the likes of Obama. Yet the loss of responsibility to vote for an adult, shows that even incompetence in a President is not enough reason for the people to go to the polls. That a candidate is Mormon, is more cause not to vote – The Constitution of the United States in Article VI, Section 3 (National Debts) clearly states, “but no religious Test shall ever be required as a Qualification to any Office or public Trust under the United States.” So much for Conservatives who are always decrying their Constitution. Saying their literal interpretation of the Constitution is a ‘standard belief’ of their political party.

The Presidency of the US centers around five separate put linked responsibilities or rather jobs. Most modern Presidents and  attempted to fulfill two. Some Presidents have been forced to fulfill specific responsibilities. They are:



Each of these roles is as important as the rest. Yet we have an American President fulfilling ONE – Head of His Party. The sad reality is the American Public has little knowledge of their Presidents responsibilities and are therefore unable to determine the job he is doing. Having a job description is the first way to qualify a person for that job or to reconsider him during his review to retain that job. If one has an employee who fulfills only part of his job he would be dismissed. Being elected due to one’s race and not their experience or ability leads to conflicting consequences.

As Commander-in-Chief of America ( Article II, Section 2, [1] The President shall be Commander in Chiel of the Army and Navy of the United States,’) one is responsible for protecting America and the World from Tyrant’s as well as injustice. Not performing ceremonial roles and ignoring those serving. A President must have a policy that he is committed to and implements. As in business a leader establishes a strategy and then delegates its implementation. Being Commander-in-Chief requires a global perspective of peace and freedom that is protected by decisive awareness and the ability to decide right from wrong. Obama has failed to perceive the need to protect all of us from these issues as he has wandered through his eight years of leaderless endeavors. Perhaps he should be told that the US has freed more people on earth in 100 years than at any other time in the history of mankind. Fed more people in 70 years than at any other time in the history of mankind. Help educate and medically care for more people in 200 years than at any other time in the history of mankind. As Churchill said, “the Americans may not get it right at first, put they do in the end”.

As Chief Executive, Obama has wasted every opportunity to lead by compromise and implementing a management style that others would follow. Failure to generate budgets of value has forced the Congress to operate the government by Continuous Resolutions. That has created bad management and corrupt practices that continue unabated. His cabinet has poorly run their departments from Veteran’s Affairs to the Treasury, that manages the IRS. All leading to major political embarrassment and hardship.  While having good intentions upon election Obama had no knowledge of executive leadership. Leadership in Government has one thing in common with leadership in business, solving problems everyday. To do so a good executive learns how to delegate and how to compromise. Both actions Obama has failed at miserably.

One of the most engaging roles as the President is Head of State. State Visits of the worlds Heads of States can develop personal relationships. State visits show the world the countries America chooses as allies and trading partners. Again, Obama has ignored this valuable aspect of his Presidency. Obama has failed to even engage in this job to secure global awareness of America’s role as a friend to others. Obama has not developed any relationships that would prove indispensable when global problems arise. In short, Obama has no friends, matter in point Israel. Not only is Israel the only Democracy in the Middle East but their people constitute one of his parties most important constituents. Both he has ignored and insulted as the Head of State and as the President.

Article II, Section 3. “he shall take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed” establishes the responsibility as Chief Law Enforcer for the President. Through his Attorney General the President is to up hold the laws of the land, not to ignore or pick and choose what laws are to be enforced. Attorney General Eric Holder has been abysmal at his job, an obvious reflection of his President. Obama has taken it upon himself on several occasions to make statements about specific instances that he perceived as wrong. Made judgment calls that were wrong and then ignored the fact he created racial disparity and anger in doing so. While at the same time ignoring Federal Laws regarding Immigration for political reasons, tax laws that allowed his employees to target and abuse his citizens. Ignored veteran assisted laws, in doing so allowed the abuse and failed care of American Military Heroes. The failure to charge, prosecute and convict individuals in the financial industry for obvious fraud in the near collapse of the global banking system due to mortgage-backed securities sales, trading and manipulation. How the electorate could possibly not see his incompetence in this job and still have voted for him, is a reflection of an electorate that is more persuaded by a President’s rhetoric and self-gratification, than his job performance.

Ah, but there is a job Obama has performed endlessly. He has excelled at and pursued with mad abandonment. Obama as the Head of His Party has traveled more miles (more than for all the other roles he should fulfill combined) to raise hundreds of millions of campaign dollars for himself and party members he endorses. Obama has spent more political capital traveling in Air Force One with members of his party than solving other problems that require his attention. He shares the company of tax evaders, racial bigots (Ferguson, Missouri is over 70% African American) and inept politicians. All who have self-serving agendas that do not solve any problems, but exacerbate problems to maintain their own positions of power.

It is no wonder that Obama’s popularity has floundered. Obama’s only other particular interest as President is self-gratification by spending an immense amount of time in personal pursuits (like golfing). A narcissistic pursuit by Obama of recognition hidden behind political fund-raising to achieve enhanced celebrity recognition and not leadership recognition, allows one to easily conclude – Obama is not nor has ever been qualified to be President.

One may conclude Obama is a good father and husband. One responsibility shrouded in privacy and the other in a daily schedule recorded for his legacy. But what were you doing the night of Benghazi, to many beers, perhaps. Which, as clearly stated in your biography you are capable of. Perhaps, instead of being under the bleachers you were on the third floor of your residency. Where were you when veterans care collapsed, or political operatives used the IRS to assault Americans and then pleaded the 5th, while your Attorney General did nothing.

As parents we all know that a new-born child growing to infancy will cry. A child that is beginning life learning and gaining knowledge and experience. Obama makes us all feel like wanting to shake a screaming baby – but you can’t. Less than    two years left in this childhoods term. Perhaps America will decide to elect another infant as President, even though she at 70 would be the first woman celebrity elected.

Americans might choose instead,  to elect an adult that deserves to be President .


Read Full Post »

With the price of oil down, cause and effect are obvious topics for discussion. The Talking Heads would have you believe it is due to over production. Wow, were have we heard this before. Remember the 70’s and the world was running out of oil. Then there is, that US fracking is the cause. Which is leading America to oil independence and will be a global game changer. Others claim that the global economy is in a down trend. Or that the US dollar is over valued. Then there are those that believe Saudi Arabia is concerned with the US massive increase in oil and natural gas production. In September the Saudi’s announced they had 500 oil rigs they could ship to the US to develop the newly generated American Oil Rush. Good luck getting the US Congress to agree to that.

The truth, all of these factors are in play. But the real reason oils is down is because the equity markets around the world are sitting on a precipice. There is no natural redistribution of shares occurring and the global traders have to set up a new principle trade to replace equities. While the global debt market for government and corporate funding is massive, it is also exclusive. Only qualified traders can participate while individuals still play with an investment of 10%. Most important, the fees are small.

Equities are heading to a major decline due to a massive over-supply of shares from the American Baby Boomers. One must also mention the US banks. Using their billions from the US government bail out, decided to drive up the equity markets over the past seven years, rather than lending it to rebuild America. The banks and traders know they have to reposition themselves in a new market to survive the equity down turn that is inevitable.

Capitalization of public companies come in two forms, value and shares. What isn’t being discussed is the massive number of shares issued by the primary corporations that make up the equity markets. There are ten companies on the NYSE that account for over 70% of the trading everyday. This fact applies to all global exchanges, who have primary stocks that make up the everyday averages of these exchanges. They are all principal companies to the global market in awareness and growth. But they also are have huge share capitalization. Of course there are individual exceptions that participate in the reverse: Amazon: 465 million shares vs Apple: 5.8 billion shares or Chipotle: 31 million shares vs McDonalds: 973 million. They both trade due to financial success but their share value is also a result of their share structure.

Shorting stocks has been the standard for making markets in stocks viable for a 100 years. With interest rates so low, there is nearly no cost in holding a short position. Shorting stocks is a principal source of revenue for traders on a daily basis. Institutional Traders, Hedge Funds, Mutual Funds and Pension Funds all require the short trade to run their computer trading programs and futures trading models to generate trading profits ever day. The key to shorting is being able to borrow the stock sold from a third-party to maintain the short. Otherwise the short can not deliver on their short position. The short pays a fee for borrowed funds and borrowed shares to maintain their position. This is the reason that the talking heads always reference that a rise in interest rates cause the market to drop. The cost of short positions goes up so the traders drop the market to cover their shorts and then reset markets to establish new short positions. The general public is unable to compete or in most cases understand this trade to participate.

So why OIL, because it is a global commodity used every day and being shipped by sea. Time, is on the side of this trade and so are global events. With the equity markets unable to convince two generations (65-85 & 85-05) to invest and the Baby Boomers retiring,  an inevitable tsunami is upon us. With no redistribution of existing equity shares occurring and new IPO’s continuing and being sold institutionally, an over whelming number of shares in the market will result in the reversal in global markets.

This is why oil prices fell and the traders are setting up a new and larger oil play. Right now the oil market is being reset to clear out short positions and inventories. Once completed the price will be reversed and moved to over US$100. As oil rises we will watch as all other equities start to slide. We are in the seventh year of the equities market cycle. By October 2015 the NYSE (DJIA) will have fallen to 9500 to 1000 or lower. This downturn will start with oil at US$75 (by May) and accelerate in September as oil trades over US$100.

There is more reason behind this, WTI and Brent have traded with a spread of 10% for years. Why? Europe has been the ‘goat’ for the benefit of Russia. But Putin has now, like other oil tyrants gotten greedy and power-hungry. The global markets are more powerful than any individual country and will not allow tyrants to determine commodity values. With the US about to position itself as the worlds largest deliverer of natural gas and being oil independent, the global game change is set. With the rest of the world buying oil at Brent prices, North America will set a new valuation for WTI. The spread between WTI and Brent will grow to 50% to 70% and the traders will have a new market to handle the lost trading in equities.

This is not a conspiracy or a plot, it is just business. There are simple rules to the market, buy low sell high and short an over valued market. My next column will explain the most recent use of these rules, 1999 – 2001. Remember the ‘DOT COM BUBBLE’, another example of the traders bait and play. History in the financial markets does repeat it self, it is called survival.

Read Full Post »

The first of May, celebrated as May Day with children May Poling and dancing to celebrate Spring. The Season of re-birth a time of Joy and planting for the Fall Harvest.

Today we celebrate the death of a tyrant. One who started a war of the world, that killed women and children, mothers and fathers, daughters and sons in the most brutal of ways. Changed civilization and the freedoms we enjoyed to protect us from the horror of war. Sought after and wanted dead to end what seemed a senseless destruction of people and property.

Endless days of sadness because one person declared war on the world. We argued amongst ourselves trying to decide whether to
go to war. Others were forced to suffer as attacks continued. As a people we allowed our own to fall while others stood by confused by our indecision.

Yet  today we celebrate and forget that the world was told on May 1st in 1945 that Hitler was dead!

There is no certainty as to the future, but the past can warn us of our failure to recognize tyrants. Bin Laden was such a tyrant who went unrecognized for a decade. The results were as terrible as was World War Two, the American Embassy’s that were bombed, the American Navy that was attached and then September 11, 2001.

The Hope of the free world is that this will be the beginning of the end for it will not end this war. A battle has been won and the war will go on. How do we settle this will be decided by those who wish to fight on, may we all pray for Peace on this day or for sake those innocence that will continue to die.

This is still a difficult time Pakistan is a nuclear nation, they may be the point of the sword that leads the world into greater destruction. We will be pressed to demand why they protected this tyrant and we will not like the answers. We all must be prepared for the worst as the Muslim world falls into continued disarray. America has never been involved in a religious war, we in the west spent the 20th Century trying to free the world of Imperialism, Communism and Socialism. All of whom celebrated their beliefs on May 1st, with military parades and the attempt to conquer thee world.

Now buried at sea this tyrant who led the way for extremism to terrorize the world is gone. But the fuse has been lit. One third of the world is pursuing the belief that all others that are non believers will die or accept their faith. Faith is the one human ideal that provides hope and the wish of a better life.  Now we will be forced to decide our own freedoms, freedom of speech, freedom of choice and freedom of religion. These freedoms we have accepted as our right and that we are all entitled to them. Not recognizing they could be lost is the first step in loosing them.

It has happened before and it will happen again.

Read Full Post »

FOOD – the single most important thing man requires and has to produce. Water – more important and Man can’t produce (more on that later). The world population is growing exponentially because man can feed man. The last fifty years was spent feeding the starving millions who have grown to be the unemployed/uneducated billions. Wow that worked out well for the educated/employed industrial people of the world.

So, you have a family that you must feed-first or second. The fact is that we are all in this together and we have to decide what we want for the world and what the world wants from us.

At the end of the 19th Century the US and Canadian work force was agrarian. Over 90% of our great, great grand-parents grew food. The Industrial Revolution of the 1880’s started to change all that. A hundred years later, less than 6% of the work force in North American feeds us and half the worlds. Wow, who thanks us for that accomplishment? More important what happened to all the cultures in the world who have been around for two thousand years.

The reality is that the 250 year experiment called Free Market Enterprise has worked. The rest of the third world has only begun to realize it’s value and have been attempting to implement it for the past 20 years. Since June 12, 1215 and the signing of the Magna Carta, Europe struggled for 600 years to accept the value of free choice, individual accomplishment and free government.

There is no doubt that the American Republic and the Canadian Confederation are the corner stones of the Tower of Free Man. It was Caesar who was quoted as saying (and I paraphrase) ‘an army marches on it’s stomach’. Food is has been and will always be the great equalizer. Feed the people and they will prosper. Every point in history has reflected Great Change in Human nature as a result of starvation. Look down in to the books of mans past and you will see that a man’s children starving have forced him to march in a new direction called anarchy.

The Middle East is on the march of anarchy due to the lack of food, work and freedom. The Muslim religion that has been split since the  death of  Muhammad, June 8 632, will descend in to massive blood shed and the West is ill prepared to stop it. Stand back world the Great Civil War of the  21st Century is upon us between the Shiite’s and the Sunni’s.

This may have started because of food, unemployment and freedom but will end in an internal religious war unparalleled in history fought by ONE BILLION TWO HUNDRED MILLION PEOPLE.

Mined well my friends food for your children will be your first choice TODAY TOMORROW AND FOR THE REST OF OUR LIVES.

Lets make money:

Food –  Commodities are now the best leverage play. The US who has the best infrastructure to produce, process and deliver food is  the safest play. We should be grateful once again for the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Look to wheat, corn, beef, chicken and dairy public companies. Invest in all of them to support their ability to survive to feed you.

Precious Metals – acquire it physically to be able to buy the food you’ll need. Best choice silver coins!!!!

Oil – Any stock, Any Public company drilling for oil in the US or Canada under $10.00, BUY! That is the only hope that we here in North America will survive the collapse of oil production in the middle east, eastern Russia and  South East Asia. The need for our oil here has come home, after 60 years of consuming the worlds oil it is now the right time to consume our own.

Manufacturing – The greats are here in North America to buy. We have our own food production, building supplies, and of coarse airplanes, heavy equipment, trains and cars.


Read Full Post »

Part II – The Art of Making Money

Governments have been printing sovereign currency for over 500 years. The Knights Templar were the Bankers (ATM’s) for all those going to and from Jerusalem for 200 years. Gold and $ilver coins were the currency of the Ancient world. Today they are all a part of our lives. Any effort to copy or re-print currency is called counterfeiting and punishable by law to years in prison. Three free rounds (food), free rent ( a cell), free utilities (prison) and free cloths (FED>Designer).

However Capitalistic Free Enterprise Governments provide a privilege to their citizens to print Stock Certificates for Private and Public Companies. In either case, if the owner or owners of these companies can show value to others and sell them shares in these companies for cash or other goods and valuables, that’s called Good Business.

Hence, the difference between Governments and Enterprises – Currency and Stock. In both cases history has proven that either can scam the public. From Great Depressions to Financial Balloons investors have always suffered the extreme downside to the free enterprise system. Yet the rewards and benefits are immense, 5 Star meals, Large homes, toys, and fashion from couturier Houses or name brand products.

The remarkable thing is that less than 4% of the world population (260 million) play the game. In fact in 1980 only 9% of  US people in were invested in the Capital Markets. The IT (intellectual technology) Revolution and the PC (personal computer) development of the 1980’s changed the entire world, for ever. By 2000 46% of Americans were indirectly in the market, with 6% directly invested or 52% in less than 20 years. The Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, Communist Asia and India or 4 BILLION people then followed suite (from 1990 to 2010) head over heels into capitalism and the free market system.

In the short span of 30 plus years the world has learned how to invest. Investing means someone wins and someone looses every day with every trade that’s made. Ergo the quotes, ” your first loss is your best loss” vs. “one only makes money selling on the way up”.

The fact is there is no value to any stock one owns until it is sold. Until then it is an INTRINSIC VALUE and clearly stated on every stock certificate, ” FULLY-PAID AND NON-ASSESSABLE COMMON SHARES WITH OUT PAR VALUE ” or in layman’s terms WORTH LESS!  So the dirty little secret in owning stock in private or public companies is to sell, GREEDY will leave you NEEDY!

Making money is a leverage risk reward concept, buy low sell high. Both are required to MAKE money. The difference is, your profit is equivalent to the loss suffered by the other person. When the market value of any given stock, market or currency drops significantly below anyone’s margin of profit or value we all suffer an intrinsic loss. It is that severe experience that makes market corrections and stock losses so severe. Were did all that dollar value go, well it was never there. It is a perception of value until one sells and converts that perceived value into a cash value. Ask those who held ENRON, WORLDCOM or  Lehman Brothers until the end. My MOTTO: “YOU WANT TO BUY – BUY/YOU WANT TO SELL BY-BY”! So that is it, How $$$$ is lost- YOU DIDN’T SELL!!!!!!

Let’s Make Money:

The rare earth metals are a good prospect because of Supply&Demand-MOLYCORP (MCP)  is huge, big potential gain to $80.00 from here.

Oil is holding the trading range we called 45 days ago. $85 – $115. This will continue until the traders get slammed (NOT), people quite buying gas to drive the over all oil price down (we will write about this later), China’s inflation rate does hit 20% ( with-in six months) or the middle east calms down (not for a generation). If none of these happen by May 2011 the trading range will shift to $100.00 – $120.00. Natural Gas BABY, the $ilver of energy investment. Always buy at the bottom and Natural Gas is at the bottom and going higher. Again, a return of over 100% is worth holding for a year and that 100% + is in Natural Gas over then next 12 months.

Gold is holding our value set 30 days ago. It hit $1,450.00 as we suggested. We still hold to the correction called of $1,405.00 by the end of March and then Gold will head to a new high $1,465.00 by June. $ilver- it does not matter, up, down or side ways it is a buy. Accumulate as much as you can afford. First, buy coins then $ilver stocks, cheap because it is still the best leverage play for another 12 months.

Read Full Post »

Part One – Capitalism as it was meant to be – a Democracy

To buy a share of a public company is the single greatest capitalistic choice of  your life. Public companies, with all things being honest and sincere is an impressive example of democracy. Each shareholder has the right each and every trading day to vote as to the management of the Public Company they own stock in. Not happy – they Sell!

More than one share, fine, a vote for every share owned. If you choose to remain a shareholder then management is required to summon all shareholders to attend or by absentee ballot vote once a year for management, the financial statements, accountants, lawyers and any matters management proposes to the shareholder meeting. Any shareholder holding one share who is recognized during the meeting may make a motion before the entire group of shareholders that are gathered. If that motion is seconded by another shareholder then the motion is debated and put to a vote.

The meeting  has to be called by notice well in advance for if a quorum does not form, no meeting. With out an annual meeting the company can not elect a new BOARD of DIRECTORS  who in turn can not re-elect Management to sit for another year. The financial statements must be approved along with the re-appointment of sub-contractors like law firms, accountants and marketing companies. As well as budgets and salary increases and bonuses. So there is a remarkable attraction for one to look at owning a public company.

The Governance is by Federal and State Fiat and by internal overview by the Independent Board of Directors who remain independent of management (act as out side Board Members) and finally by a code of ethics that management establishes. In a perfect world what could be better, but alas there are devious individuals that ‘get rich at the expense of others’. The transparency of the Public company helps to restrain, limit and prosecute those who abuse the opportunity. The whole concept is to provide an environment of risk to the investor who shares equally on the operating news of the company with those who run and control the company. This limits if not removes fraud, graft, bribes and theft from those managing the company. In most cases Federal and State Laws allow for prosecution of those who abuse the system. In any event problems never prevent you as the shareholder from selling your stock and taking your money elsewhere to invest.

The key to a successful Public company is the number of shareholders. The more shareholders the more oversight in the market, the annual review and value created by the distribution of the Public companies common shares. All the value talked about in regard to the companies assets, cash flow or management can’t compare to the number of shareholders. Ask a shareholder of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., average shareholder holds one share. The perfect 21st Century Democracy.

Lets make money:

Currency is a fickle thing because it to is traded like stock. A lot of people make fortunes trading it because the market is cyclical. Meaning it fluctuates in price, there by creating a spread from which one can make money. The ability to be at the beginning of the cycle and out at the high or low point allows profits to be taken. In the 20th Century that spread was small and so one had to risk large amounts of money or stock to participate. To lower the risks and create more involvement (distribution) smaller contracts were created for more to trade. In the last fifteen years the trade has changed.  In the 21st Century Sovereign currencies have been over printed and government debt, lending and spending has resulted in larger spreads in the highs and lows. So go look at graphs of the EURO, US Dollar and the Yen and you will find just how perfect the market is to profit. ENJOY.

Read Full Post »